Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Travel Behaviour and Society journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tbs Commuting behavior adaptation to flooding: An analysis of transit users’ choices in Metro Manila Raymund Paolo B. Abad a, ⁎ , Tim Schwanen b , Alexis M. Fillone a a Civil Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, Malate, Manila, Philippines b Transport Studies Unit, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, United Kingdom ARTICLEINFO Keywords: Flooding Commute behavior adaptation Beliefs Choice modeling ABSTRACT People are likely to adapt their everyday travel behavior when faced with adverse weather conditions like flooding. Variations in their usual travel routine often manifest in changes made in departure time, transport mode use or route taken, or cancellation of travel. The current study aims to understand how commuters in Metro Manila adjust their travel behavior in response to flooding events. Questionnaire data collected among employees demonstrate that in Metro Manila adaptation of commute behavior in response to flood events occur more often during the trip to work than during the return to home, and mostly consist of changes to the de- parture time. In addition, the outcomes for a series of binary logit models are consistent with the claim that whether adaptations are made to commuting behavior primarily depends on the respondent’s commute and employment situation. Perceived flood characteristics sociodemographic profile and commuters’ beliefs about changes over time in the frequency of flood events all played a role but were much less weakly associated with the inclination to adapt commuting behavior. Recommendations for transit agencies and employers are derived from the analysis so that affected travelers can adapt to travel conditions during flood events without com- promising commitments in the household or in the workplace. 1. Introduction Flooding is experienced in many cities across the world and is in- tensified by rising sea levels and recurrent extreme weather events. Because of the combination of changes to the climate and weather patterns with urban development processes that increase flood ex- posure, cities are now considered the most vulnerable human habitats because of climate change (IPCC, 2007; Stern, 2006). Risk of flooding is often aggravated by blocked drainage systems due to poor solid waste disposal and rapid housing development along river banks (Birhanu et al., 2016). Many Asian coastal cities, in particular, have high flood risks be- cause of more frequent typhoons and intense rainstorms occurring in the region (Webster et al., 2005). The Philippines, a tropical country located in South East Asia, is one of the countries significantly affected by climate change-induced variability of rainfall (Cruz et al., 2007). Within the last decade, the country experienced significantly more rainfall events exceeding 350 mm than in the 1960 s and 1970 s. In 2009, an extreme rainfall event during Typhoon Ketsana inundated the capital region of Metro Manila with flood waters. It is believed that several factors have exacerbated this historic flood event, including a decrease in river channel capacity, the disappearance of small river channels, higher runoff concentration, loss of natural retention areas, and land subsidence (World Bank, 2010). Since then, different storms or monsoons that hit the capital region have resulted in various flood events. The list of flood events in Table 1 only includes those that are induced by storms or monsoon events. These do not include flood events that were caused by thunderstorms or short rainfall events within a single day. Crucially, flooding affects not only existing infrastructures and the built environment but also individuals and their daily routines such as commuting and other forms of travel. Previous research has suggested that actual adaptation to travel routines, as well as the capacity to adapt such routines, differ across populations (Cools and Creemers, 2013; Khattak and De Palma, 1997). It is essential to understand better who adapts, and can adapt, their travel behavior in response to flooding. This is particularly so for cities in Metro Manila, which are already significantly affected by climate change-induced variability of rainfall. Previous studies have shown how individuals are affected by, and re- spond to, weather-related disruption of road-based public transporta- tion services, with many commuters and university students getting stranded and having to wait long times until flood waters subside or https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tbs.2019.10.001 Received 23 November 2018; Received in revised form 16 September 2019; Accepted 5 October 2019 ⁎ Corresponding author at: Civil Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue, Malate, Manila City 0922, Philippines. E-mail address: raymund.abad@dlsu.edu.ph (R.P.B. Abad). Travel Behaviour and Society 18 (2020) 46–57 2214-367X/ © 2019 Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. T