Climatic Change
DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0844-y
Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals
in ENSEMBLES regional projections
Marco Turco · Antonella Sanna · Sixto Herrera ·
Maria-Carmen Llasat · José Manuel Gutiérrez
Received: 28 January 2013 / Accepted: 8 July 2013
© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
Abstract In this paper we analyze some caveats found in the state-of-the-art
ENSEMBLES regional projections dataset focusing on precipitation over Spain,
and highlight the need of a task-oriented validation of the GCM-driven control
runs. In particular, we compare the performance of the GCM-driven control runs
(20C3M scenario) with the ERA40-driven ones (“perfect” boundary conditions) in a
common period (1961–2000). Large deviations between the results indicate a large
uncertainty/bias for the particular RCM-GCM combinations and, hence, a small
confidence for the corresponding transient simulations due to the potential nonlinear
amplification of biases. Specifically, we found large biases for some RCM-GCM
combinations attributable to RCM in-house problems with the particular GCM
coupling. These biases are shown to distort the corresponding climate change signal,
M. Turco (B )
CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change),
Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division, via Maiorise s.n.c., 81043,
Capua CE, Italy
e-mail: marco.turco@cmcc.it
A. Sanna
CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change), Viale Aldo Moro 44,
40127 Bologna, Italy
S. Herrera
Grupo de Meteorología, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science,
Universidad de Cantabria (UC), Av. de los Castros s/n, Santander, 39005, Spain
M.-C. Llasat
University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 647, Barcelona, 08028, Spain
J. M. Gutiérrez
Grupo de Meteorología, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), CSIC-UC,
Av. de los Castros s/n, Santander, 39005, Spain