Vol.:(0123456789) Comparative European Politics https://doi.org/10.1057/s41295-020-00214-5 ORIGINAL ARTICLE The long‑term efects of the economic crisis on political trust in Europe: Is there a negativity bias in the relation between economic performance and political support? Marc Hooghe 1  · Martin Okolikj 1 © Springer Nature Limited 2020 Abstract Studies have shown that the economic crisis that started in 2008 was followed by a sharp decline in political trust in some liberal democracies. These fndings suggest that an economic downturn might contribute to a more structural crisis of demo- cratic legitimacy. From 2011 on, however, unemployment levels in industrialized democracies started to decline again. In this paper, we investigate how public opin- ion reacted to this gradual economic recovery. Previous studies examining economic evaluations by the public suggest that there is a negativity bias, with public opinion reacting stronger to an economic downturn than to economic growth. We analyse the ESS data from 2002 to 2016 (eight waves) and fnd that public opinion reacted positively to economic recovery, with levels of political trust gradually rising to pre- crisis levels in most countries. In the discussion section, we refect on the implica- tions of our fndings for the study of trends in political trust. Keywords Political trust · Economic crisis · European Social Survey · Longitudinal research · Negativity bias Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1057/s4129 5-020-00214-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Martin Okolikj martin.okolikj@kuleuven.be Marc Hooghe marc.hooghe@kuleuven.be 1 Centre for Citizenship and Democracy, Centre for Political Research, KU Leuven, Parkstraat 45, Box 3602, 3000 Louvain, Belgium