Journal of Environmental Management 260 (2020) 110128 Available online 20 January 2020 0301-4797/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Research article The importance of Legal Reserves for protecting the Pantanal biome and preventing agricultural losses Ang� elica Guerra a , Paulo Tarso Sanches de Oliveira b, * , F� abio de Oliveira Roque a , Isabel M. D. Rosa c , Jos� e Manuel Ochoa-Quintero d , Rafael Dettogni Guariento a , Carina Barbosa Colman b , Viviane Dib e, f , Ver^ onica Maioli e , Bernardo Strassburg e , Letícia Couto Garcia a a Programa de P� os-Graduaç~ ao em Ecologia e Conservaç~ ao, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Brazil b Programa de P� os-Graduaç~ ao em Tecnologias Ambientais, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Brazil c School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG, UK d Instituto de Investigaci� on de Recursos Biol� ogicos Alexander von Humboldt, Avenida Circunvalar No. 16-20, Bogot� a, DC, Colombia e International Institute for Sustainability, Estrada Dona Castorina 124, 22460-320, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil f Programa de P� os-Graduaç~ ao em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil A R T I C L E INFO Keywords: Native vegetation loss Soil loss Sediment yield Erosion Scenarios Land use changes ABSTRACT Considering scenarios of future changes in land use have the potential to support policy-makers in drafting environmental laws to reconcile the demands of multiple land uses. The Pantanal, one of the largest wetlands in the world, has been undergoing rapid land use changes, and does not yet have any integrated environmental legislation on Legal Reserve for entire region (LR - minimum percentage of native vegetation required within private properties). The aim of this paper was to generate future vegetation loss scenarios for the Pantanal based on four LR values: (i) BAU: Business as usual, which considers existing laws: Native Vegetation Protection Law and State Decree; (ii) LRE: LR elimination owing to a bill recently proposed; (iii) LR50: which considers the bill proposing 50% of LR for the Pantanal; and (iv) LR80: our proposed levels of 80% of LR for the lowlands and 35% for the plateau (following values in the Amazon). Based on native vegetation loss from each scenario, we esti- mated the soil loss and sediment yield to rivers. Our results show that LRE would increase native vegetation loss in the Pantanal by as much as 139% when compared to the BAU, whereas increasing LR levels would reduce conversion values by 29% (LR80). Elimination of the LR would increase soil erosion and sediment production by up to 7% and 10%, respectively, compared to BAU. Based on native vegetation loss from each scenario, we estimated the soil loss and sediment yield to rivers with our data showing more than 90% of the sediment transported to the lowland originating from the plateau. The LR80 indicates a reduction in soil nutrient replacement costs of 10% compared to BAU, while in the LR50 these costs decrease by 1.5%, and in the LRE would increase of 8%. Our results show that abolishing current protections would have substantial impacts on avulsion processes, on several economic activities (tourism, fshery, cattle raising, etc.) and negative impacts for biodiversity conservation and would bring losses to agriculture in the Pantanal. Hence, our study brings clearly evidence of LR importance and need to expand it in this sensitive wetland. 1. Introduction Scenario modeling is an important tool to foresee how nature re- sponds to different pathways of future human development and policy choices (Ferrier et al., 2016; Rosa et al., 2017). Land cover and land use change (LCLUC) rates tend to decrease when sustainable production incentive policies are made, and command as well as control policies are incentivized and supported by the government (Boucher et al., 2013; Stickler et al., 2013). To ensure the protection of the natural environment in Brazil, several * Corresponding author. Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Avenida Costa e Silva, s/n, Bairro Universit� ario, 79, 070-900, Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. E-mail addresses: angelicaguerra14@hotmail.com (A. Guerra), paulo.t.oliveira@ufms.br (P.T.S. Oliveira), roque.eco@gmail.com (F.O. Roque), i.rosa@bangor.ac. uk (I.M.D. Rosa), jmochoaquintero@gmail.com (J.M. Ochoa-Quintero), rafaguariento@gmail.com (R.D. Guariento), carinabcolman@gmail.com (C.B. Colman), v. dib@iis-rio.org (V. Dib), v.maioli@iis-rio.org (V. Maioli), b.strassburg@iis-rio.org (B. Strassburg), garcialcbio@yahoo.com.br (L.C. Garcia). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Environmental Management journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvman https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110128 Received 2 October 2019; Received in revised form 2 January 2020; Accepted 11 January 2020