A Framework for Assessing Soil, Climate and Market Constraints to Improve Food Security in Qatar A.K.S. Huda* 1 , S. Kaitibie 3 , P.W. Moody 2 , M.M. Haq 3 , A.I. Issaka 1 , K. Abdella 4 , A. T. Moustafa 5 , I. Goktepe 3 , K.J. Coughlan 2 , M. Pollanen 4 , N. Vock 2 1 University of Western Sydney, Australia 2 Consultants, Australia 3 Qatar University, Qatar 4 Trent University, Canada 5 Al Sulaiteen Agricultural & Industrial Complex (SAIC), Qatar * Email: s.huda@uws.edu.au 1. Introduction To improve agricultural production in Qatar, a number of issues needs to be tackled. These include: • adverse climatic conditions • quality of soils • Scarcity of irrigation water • inappropriate crop rotations • market constraints • ineffective agricultural subsidies Overcoming these problems requires strategies such as: ➢ increasing domestic agricultural production in Qatar by using a combination of hi-tech water-efficient field and greenhouse production systems ➢ land purchase and contract farming of broad-acre crops in more agricultural resource-rich countries such as Australia. Aim ❖ To assess climate, soil and market ❖ To generate an optimised list of food crops that could be grown under output price uncertainty and severely limiting arable land and water conditions in Qatar Significance Output obtained from the framework will allow Qatari investment operations in Australia and other countries to determine the best locations for wheat production. The framework would generate a prioritised list of profitable vegetables that can be grown in Qatar in order to improve the food security situation. 2. Research design and methods Components of the framework include: • Assessing the yield potential crops through simulation modelling using historical climate and soils data • Using a case study of five selected Australian locations, and wheat as a selected crop, potential yields were simulated using soils and long-term climate data • The module has adapted to identify suitable locations for producing vegetable crops in Qatar • The framework will be informed by a large amount of historical data in Qatar, including crop types and yield , lad and water use coefficients, food import and export data, food prices and food preferences. Australian locations ➢ Dalby, in Queensland ➢ Trangie and Junee in New South Wales ➢ Esperance and Jerramungup in Western Australia Qatari locations ▪ SAIC Farm ▪ Qatar University Farm ▪ Arab-Qatari farm ▪ Al Utoriyah Research Station ▪ Rodhat Al Faras Research Station 3. Results A typical soil profile – Qatari location 4. Discussion The changes in crop production-related climatic variables would possibly have major influences on regional as well as global food production [1]. The possible impacts of climate change on crop yield can be determined either by experimental data or by crop growth simulation models [2]. Food security is increasingly important for human beings all over the world and further research on food security needs to integrate population, crop production, climate change and water availability, consequently, to evaluate food security completely and systematically [2]. In order to build resilience to the food insecurity situation in Qatar, yield improvement and market linkage programs need to be strengthened through the exploration of market opportunities for non-traditional crops in Qatar. 6. Acknowledgement This publication was made possible by the NPRP grant # NPRP6-064-4-001 from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation). The statements made herein are solely the responsibility of the authors. 7. References 1. Abraha M, Savage M: Potential impacts of climate change on the grain yield of maize for the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Agriculture, ecosystems & environment 2006, 115:150-160. 2. Kang Y, Khan S, Ma X: Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security–A review. Progress in Natural Science 2009, 19:1665-1674. 5. Conclusion Climate change impacts on crop yield are usually integrated with their effects on water productivity and soil water balance. Global warming influences temperature and rainfall, which would directly have effects on the soil moisture status and groundwater level. Crop yield is constrained to crop varieties and planting areas, soil degradation, growing climate and water availability during the crop growth period. With increasing temperatures and fluctuating precipitation, water availability and crop production will decrease in the future [2]. Despite the threat of climate change to food production, Qatar can produce more food and ensure that food is used more efficiently and equitably. This can be achieved through this framework. Climate/SCF Daily temperature, rainfall, Radiation , evapotranspiration Crop Yields Means, Variability Management Strategy Crop i Crop N Crop Acreage Fertilization Amount Irrigation Strategy Yield Potential Actual Yield Market Prices Whole-Farm Revenue Whole-Farm Costs Optimization Objective Function (Target Variable ) Direct Payment Soil-Data Texture, Chemistry, dispersion, erosion hazard, Hydraulic Properties Crop 1 Whole-Farm Gross Margin Risks Constraints and Parameter Ranges Soil management (SCAMP) Provide Management advisories to stakeholders (farmers, policy makers etc.) CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK QNRF Food Security GCM/RCM, Stochastic generator, Or Historical Record Crop-Model Crop Growth Model (APSIM? CropSyst? Aquacrop?) Table 1: Means of climatic data of The State of Qatar and surroundings Locations Temperature (⁰C) Rainfall (mm)/yr Relative humidity (%) Evaporation 1971-1988 Mean Monthly Mean Number Mean (daily) PAN (mm) (annual) Max. Min. (annual) of months Rawdat Al-Faras 26.0 33.3 18.9 97.5 7 - 8 62.0 1704.0 Al-Otoriyah 26.6 33.6 19.6 114.0 6 - 7 59.9 1821.5 Al-Deeha 26.1 33.0 19.2 75.5 5 - 6 55.6 1921.0 Doha (Airport) 26.9 32.8 21.9 82.8 7 - 8 59.0 - Abu Samra 25.4 33.9 19.7 64.4 (Doha) 5 - 6 64.7 1773.9 2011 2010 2009 2008 Crops Prod. Area Prod. Area Prod. Area Prod. Area (Ton) (Hect.) (Ton) (Hect.) (Ton) (Hect.) (Ton) (Hect.) Tomatoes 8,640 288 10,959 365 10,536 351 22,434 748 Eggplant 3,608 144 4,678 187 4,498 180 7,848 314 Pepper 598 100 655 109 523 87 1,860 310 Lettuce 399 31 523 40 351 27 3,169 244 Carrots 84 7 113 9 112 9 1,768 147 Cabbage 1,749 117 2,597 173 2,622 175 5,573 372 Cauliflower 1,376 115 2,066 172 1,638 137 4,982 415 Melon 751 83 744 83 526 58 2,814 313 Watermelon 124 13 206 22 128 14 1,607 169 Squash 4,717 295 4,528 283 4,480 280 7,760 485 Cucumber 729 49 311 21 77 5 2,774 185 Snake Cucumber 236 12 300 15 370 19 1,078 54 Ding Arkabi 2,852 143 4,098 21 2,878 144 4,990 250 Pumpkin 370 17 537 24 400 18 3,518 160 Okra 300 75 351 88 304 76 1,082 271 Potato 18 2 46 5 33 30 98 10 Dry onion 2,223 86 2,777 107 2,353 91 7,966 306 Green onion 342 34 526 53 375 38 3,050 305 Mallow 248 21 314 26 312 26 1,075 90 Spinach 198 20 280 28 234 23 1,060 106 Chard 269 22 323 27 331 28 1,250 104 Radish 426 28 456 30 281 19 1,593 106 Parsley 185 28 244 38 491 76 1,328 204 Cowpeas 236 30 250 31 129 16 426 53 Beans 148 20 74 10 57 6 613 82 Bean 27 3 95 10 58 6 233 23 Turnips 49 5 41 4 58 6 325 33 Beet 102 10 110 11 63 6 337 34 Other Vegetables 2,524 202 2,539 203 2,036 163 2,639 211 Total 33,528 1,997 40,741 2,378 36,265 2,088 95,250 6,102