Research Article Weather-Based Prediction Models for the Prevalence of Dengue Vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus J. M. Manel K. Herath, 1,2 Hemalika T. K. Abeyasundara, 3 W. A. Priyanka P. De Silva, 4 Thilini C. Weeraratne, 4 and S. H. P. Parakrama Karunaratne 4 1 Entomological Surveillance Unit, Ofce of Regional Director of Health Services, Kurunegala, Sri Lanka 2 Postgraduate Institute of Science, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka 3 Department of Statistics and omputer Science, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka 4 Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka Correspondence should be addressed to S. H. P. Parakrama Karunaratne; shppk@sci.pdn.ac.lk Received 28 August 2022; Revised 26 November 2022; Accepted 28 November 2022; Published 27 December 2022 Academic Editor: Rajib Chowdhury Copyright © 2022 J. M. Manel K. Herath et al. Tis is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Dengue is an important vector•borne disease transmitted by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. In the absence of an efective vaccine, vector control has become the key intervention tool in controlling the disease. Vector densities are signifcantly afected by the changing weather patterns of a region. Te present study was conducted in three selected localities, i.e., urban Bandaranayakapura, semiurban Galgamuwa, and rural Buluwala in the Kurunegala district of Sri Lanka to assess spatial and temporal distribution of dengue vector mosquitoes and to predict vector prevalence with respect to changing weather parameters. Monthly ovitrap surveys and larval surveys were conducted from January to December 2019 and continued further in the urban area up to December 2021. Aedes aegypti was found moderately in the urban area and to a lesser extent in semiurban but not in the rural area. Aedes albopictus had the preference for rural over urban areas. Aedes aegypti preferred indoor breeding, while Ae. albopictus preferred both indoor and outdoor. For Ae. albopictus, ovitrap index (OVI), premise index (PI), container index (CI), and Breteau index (BI) correlated with both the rainfall (RF) and relative humidity (RH) of the urban site. Correlations were stronger between OVI and RH and also between BI and RF. Linear regression analysis was ftted, and a prediction model was developed using BI and RF with no lag period (R 2 (sq) � 86.3%; F � 53.12; R 2 (pred) � 63.12%; model: Log10 (BI) � 0.153+0.286 * Log10 (RF); RMSE � 1.49). Another prediction model was developed using OVI and RH with one month lag period (R 2 (sq) � 70.21%; F � 57.23; model: OVI predicted � 15.1+0.528 * Lag1monthRH;RMSE � 2.01). Tese two models can be used to monitor the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in urban settings to predict possible dengue outbreaks. 1. Introduction Dengue is a fast•growing mosquito borne disease, found especially in the countries located within the equatorial zone, and has been ranked as one of the top ten threats to global health in 2019 by the World Health Organization [1, 2]. It is anarboviraldiseasecausedbyinfectionofoneormoreofthe four dengue virus serotypes. Dengue virus is transmitted from human to human through the bites of infective females of Aedes aegypti Linnaeus and Ae. albopictus Skuse mos• quitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) [3, 4]. Aedes aegypti is mainly endophilic and considered the primary vector of the disease. It has adapted to human habitats and breeds primarily in artifcial water containers such as water storage barrels, old tires, and fower pots. Aedes albopictus is mainly exophilic, less adapted to human habitats, and mainly breeds in natural containers such as tree stumps and coconut shells and to a lesser extent in artifcial containers [5–7]. Although Ae. aegypti has a higher distribution range and a higher disease transmission capacity, Ae.albopictus is considered one of the most invasive mosquito species emerging as a global public• health threat [8]. Hindawi Journal of Tropical Medicine Volume 2022, Article ID 4494660, 10 pages https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4494660