Citation: Tamamadin, M.; Lee, C.;
Kee, S.-H.; Yee, J.-J. Regional Typhoon
Track Prediction Using Ensemble
k-Nearest Neighbor Machine
Learning in the GIS Environment.
Remote Sens. 2022, 14, 5292. https://
doi.org/10.3390/rs14215292
Academic Editor: Silas Michaelides
Received: 29 August 2022
Accepted: 19 October 2022
Published: 22 October 2022
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remote sensing
Article
Regional Typhoon Track Prediction Using Ensemble k-Nearest
Neighbor Machine Learning in the GIS Environment
Mamad Tamamadin
1,2
, Changkye Lee
3
, Seong-Hoon Kee
1,3
and Jurng-Jae Yee
1,3,
*
1
Department of ICT Integrated Ocean Smart Cities Engineering, Dong-A University, Busan 49315, Korea
2
Department of Meteorology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
3
University Core Research Center for Disaster-free & Safe Ocean City Construction, Dong-A University,
Busan 49315, Korea
* Correspondence: jjyee@dau.ac.kr
Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach for typhoon track prediction that potentially impacts
a region using ensemble k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) in a GIS environment. In this work, the past
typhoon tracks are zonally split into left and right classes by the current typhoon track and then
grouped as an ensemble member containing three (left-center-right) typhoons. The proximity of
the current typhoon to the left and/or right class is determined by using a supervised classification
k-NN algorithm. The track dataset created from the current and similar class typhoons is trained by
using the supervised regression k-NN to predict current typhoon tracks. The ensemble averaging
is performed for all typhoon track groups to obtain the final track prediction. It is found that the
number of ensemble members does not necessarily affect the accuracy; the determination of similarity
at the beginning, however, plays an important key role. A series of tests yields that the present
method is able to produce a typhoon track prediction with a fast simulation time, high accuracy, and
long duration.
Keywords: k-Nearest Neighbor; GIS processing; machine learning; similarity; typhoon track prediction
1. Introduction
Typhoons are extreme weather events that normally harm coastal areas [1]. Typhoon
disasters cause heavy winds, floods, and extreme waves [2], which can damage infrastruc-
ture, transportation, and human activity [3,4]. The city of Busan, located on the borders of
the Korea/Tsushima Strait, is often impacted by many typhoons [5,6], the impacts of which
are felt during direct landfalls or passage through surrounding areas, namely Ulsan city [7]
and Gyeongsangnam-do [8]. To reduce these greater severe impacts, typhoon prediction is
essential. However, there are still problems related to the accuracy, especially in predicting
the track, intensity, and impact risk. Improvements or developments of a new approach are
required to produce a more accurate prediction of typhoons. This work aims to develop a
new approach to predict the more accurate typhoon tracks approaching or making landfall
in a region.
The following forecasting models have been developed for operational and research
use to anticipate typhoon impacts [9]: (a) averaging across occurrences, (b) numerical and
dynamical modeling, (c) statistical model, (d) pattern similarities, (e) data assimilation, and
(f) microseismic signal. Firstly, the averaging technique is to extrapolate typhoon tracks
in which performance depends on past typhoon position selection. Secondly, numerical
and dynamical modeling aims to predict typhoons using a numerical approximation of
mathematical equations describing the physical forces affecting the cyclone [10,11]. To
utilize the method, supercomputers that repetitively calculate values in every grid using
input data, such as global weather forecasts and static geographical data as initialization and
boundary conditions, are required [12]. In addition, there is still a lack of accuracy in this
method due to the inaccurate vortex initialization of typhoons, incomplete representation
Remote Sens. 2022, 14, 5292. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14215292 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing