DOI: 10.1111/mice.12525 ORIGINAL ARTICLE Modeling evacuation route choices under influence of variable message signs Minghua Zeng 1 Min Wang 1 Yang Liu 2 Jiuh-Biing Sheu 3 1 School of Transportation and Logistics, East China Jiao Tong University, Nanchang, China 2 Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 3 Department of Business Administration, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan Correspondence Jiuh-Biing Sheu, Department of Business Administration, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10617, Taiwan. Email: jbsheu@ntu.edu.tw Funding information National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Number: 71601163; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province, Grant/Award Numbers:20142BAB207016, 20181BAB206044; Key R&D Program of Jiangxi Province, Grant/Award Number: 20192BBG70076; Department of Science and Technology of Jiangxi Province; Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan, Grant/Award Numbers: MOST 108-2410-H-002-225-MY3, MOST 106-2410-H-002-055-MY3 Abstract This work develops a novel methodology for investigating dynamic evacuation route switching behavior and its influence on evacuation traffic assignment considering evacuees’ intuitionistic fuzzy perception and cognition of multitype multiattribute real-time variable message sign (VMS) information. The methodology has three dis- tinctive features. First, a link-based VMS information utility model is developed. Second, two link-specific dynamic escape speed models (DESMs), characterized by VMS information, evacuee attributes, and hazard-related information, are pro- posed. Third, VMS information characteristics and the intuitionistic fuzzy method are integrated into route choice behavior models. The link-specific DESMs are used to adjust the reactive DYNASTOCH algorithm to simulate emergency traffic evacua- tion. Results demonstrate that the proposed models are effective in characterizing not only dynamic evacuation route switching behavior (microscopic) but also network- wide evacuation traffic performances (macro) under behavioral and information uncertainties. 1 INTRODUCTION Variable message signs (VMSs) have been widely used to display traffic information about congestion, incidents, and travel time for example. However, their ability to improve disaster-induced network-wide evacuation traffic perfor- mance has not been examined sufficiently (Ma, Shao, Song, & Chen, 2014). Emergency evacuations involve substantial uncertainties in such as VMS information, traveler attributes, and surroundings. For example, vehicle collisions and break- downs, which are estimated to have been responsible for about 52–58% of the total delay in U.S. urban areas in 2011 (Schrank, Lomax, & Eisele, 2011) may occur more frequently © 2020 Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering during an emergency evacuation, degrading network-wide traffic evacuation performance. The unexpected congestion that is caused by incidents during evacuation can be regarded as nonrecurrent congestion, with which this article is mainly concerned. The impact of nonrecurring congestion on evacuation performance can be relieved by providing traffic information for drivers by using intelligent transportation system applications, including onboard advanced traveler information systems (ATISs) and road-side VMSs, to dissem- inate information about complete or partial recommended paths, as well as qualitative or quantitative information about traffic conditions. Such information can be used to adjust trips by travelers. Its effects on travel decisions have Comput Aided Civ Inf. 2020;1–25. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/mice 1