Media Ekonomi dan Manajemen, Volume 37 Issue 2, July 2022, 240-251 240 p-ISSN: 0854-1442 (Print) e-ISSN: 2503-4464 (Online) ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVENESS AND FORECASTING OF INDONESIAN TEA EXPORTS TO MAIN DESTINATION COUNTRIES Fadhlan Zuhdi National Research and Innovation Agency, Indonesia Email: fadhlan.zuhdi@brin.go.id Khoiru Rizqy Rambe National Research and Innovation Agency, Indonesia Email: khoiru.rizqy.rambe@brin.go.id (corresponding author) Lola Rahmadona Faculty of Agriculture, University of Muhammadiyah Jakarta, Indonesia Email: lola.rahmadona@umj.ac.id Received: March 2022; Accepted: June 2022; Available online: July 2022 Abstract Indonesia as a tea exporter in the world has not maximized tea export opportunities as indicated by the decline in the value of tea exports from 2016 to 2020. This study aims to further analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian tea exports to major importing countries and predict the value of exports that will occur until 2025. This study used time series data from 2001-2020 which was analyzed with Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The results of the analysis show that the competitiveness of Indonesian tea exports to the main destination countries, namely Russia, Malaysia, China, Taiwan, and the United States, does not have a comparative advantage (RCA<1). However, based on forecasting results, the value of tea exports to Russia, Malaysia, and China is expected to increase until 2025. This increase in tea export value also has an impact in the form of strengthening the competitiveness of Indonesian tea exports in these countries even though the RCA index value is smaller than one. Thus, although the competitiveness of Indonesian tea exports is still weak in destination countries, Indonesia can optimize tea exports to countries that have increased competitiveness, such as Russia, Malaysia, and China. Keywords: Competitiveness; Forecasting; Revealed Comparative Advantage; Tea Export. JEL Classification: Q17, Q13, Q02 How to Cite: Zuhdi, F., Rambe, K. R., & Rahmadona, L. (2022). Analysis of Competitiveness and Forecasting of Indonesian Tea Exports to Main Destination Countries. Media Ekonomi dan Manajemen, 37(2), 240-251. doi: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.24856/mem.v37i2.2888. INTRODUCTION Since many years ago, tea has become a prima donna plant around the world because it has a delicious taste and is accepted throughout the world (Islam et al., 2021). Tea is consumed by all walks of life and it is estimated that more than 3 billion people in the world have consumed tea (Oktaviana et al., 2017). This makes tea an important commodity and is used as a major world trade commodity. Indonesia as the sixth largest tea exporter in the world certainly benefits because of the large opportunity to earn foreign exchange through tea exports to the world (Ramadhani, 2013). Unfortunately, the large opportunity for tea exports to international market was not responded well by Indonesia where there was a decline in the value of Indo-