Exploring technological opportunities by linking technology and products: Application of morphology analysis and text mining Byungun Yoon a, ⁎, Inchae Park a , Byoung-youl Coh b a Dongguk University, Seoul, Republic of Korea b Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information, 66, Hoegi-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 130-741, Republic of Korea article info abstract Article history: Received 3 June 2013 Accepted 8 October 2013 Available online xxxx The technological opportunity discovery (TOD) can be divided into two types: anticipating new technology and applying existing technology. The latter is useful for small and medium companies, which have weak technology forecasting capability. Thus, this research aims to suggest the methodology for the TOD based on existing technology by using morphology analysis and text mining. The extracted results of TOD are classified into three categories based on the types of product — existing, applied, and heterogeneous product. To illustrate the process and validate the utility of application, LED heat dissipation technology and LED lamps are selected as the technology and product for the illustration. The method contributes to suggest a semi-automated normative method for technology forecasting by combining morphology analysis and text mining. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Technological opportunity discovery Morphology analysis Text mining 1. Introduction Exploring technology opportunities is considered as an essential process for companies and governments since the possession of promising technology can provide a core competitive advantage in the future among the competitors. Thus, many developed countries conduct science and tech- nology forecasting through technological and economical scanning periodically and reflect the result of forecasting to the national science and technology policy. Furthermore, many global leading companies perform technology fore- casting activities for preoccupancy of their new business driver in the future. Technological opportunity is defined as a set of possibilities or potential for technological advance or technological progress in general or within a particular field [1,2]. The concept of technological opportunity reflects the possibilities for tech- nological progress in different industries [3]. It indicates that technological opportunities bring innovations in a given field of knowledge and a given industry in terms of time and costs. Technological opportunity also reflects the cost of achieving some normalized unit of technical advance [4]. The research regarding technological opportunity discovery (TOD) is divided into developing methodology, framework, and index. Researches on TOD methodologies presented a modified methodology based on both qualitative analysis like Delphi [5], scouting [6], and morphology analysis [7] and quantitative analysis like bibliometrics and patent analysis [8], which are generally used in technology forecasting. The technology intelligence framework is suggested as a framework for TOD from an information gathering and analysis perspective [9]. Knowledge spread, research duplication between firms, and research scope is defined as indices for measuring the influence of technological opportunity [10]. The effect of technological opportunity on the probability that they would be commer- cialized through the creation of new firms is examined by technological importance, radicalness, and patent scope [11]. As an example of the ongoing TOD project, foresight and understanding from scientific exposition (FUSE) is suggested by the intelligence advanced research projects activity (IARPA) in the US. The program, initiated in 2011, seeks to develop Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2013) xxx–xxx ⁎ Corresponding author at: Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, School of Engineering, Dongguk University, 3-26, Pil-dong 3ga, Chung-gu, Seoul 100-715, Republic of Korea. Tel.: +82 2 2260 8659; fax: +82 2 2260 8743. E-mail address: postman3@dongguk.edu (B. Yoon). TFS-17875; No of Pages 17 0040-1625/$ – see front matter © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.013 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Technological Forecasting & Social Change Please cite this article as: B. Yoon, et al., Exploring technological opportunities by linking technology and products: Application of morphology analysis and text mining, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.013