Empir Econ DOI 10.1007/s00181-012-0650-9 Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK Ramprasad Bhar · Girijasankar Mallik Received: 2 May 2010 / Accepted: 19 August 2012 © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012 Abstract This study examines the transmission and response of inflation uncer- tainty and output uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the UK using a bi-variate EGARCH model. Results suggest that inflation uncertainty has positive and significant effects on inflation before the inflation-targeting period, but that the effect is significantly negative after the inflation-targeting period. On the other hand, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation and a positive effect on growth, while oil price rises significantly increase inflation for the UK. Results also indicate that inflation uncertainty significantly reduces output growth before and after the inflation-targeting period. These findings are robust and the Generalized impulse response functions corroborate the conclusions. These results have important implica- tions for an inflation-targeting monetary policy, and for stabilization policy in general. Keywords Inflation · Inflation uncertainty · EGARCH · Impulse response JEL Classification E31 · E52 · E63 · E64 1 Introduction The examination of the impact of inflationary expectations is crucial, as it is through inflation uncertainty that high inflation can adversely affect economic growth. Okun R. Bhar School of Banking and Finance, The University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia e-mail: r.bhar@unsw.edu.au G. Mallik (B ) School of Economics & Finance, University of Western Sydney, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith South DC NSW 1797, Australia e-mail: g.mallik@uws.edu.au 123