Vol. 9(22), pp. 752-761, 28 November, 2015
DOI: 10.5897/AJBM2015.7803
Article Number: E41692E56400
ISSN 1993-8233
Copyright © 2015
Author(s) retain the copyright of this article
http://www.academicjournals.org/AJBM
African Journal of Business Management
Full Length Research Paper
Exchange rate dynamics and monetary unions in
Africa: A fractional integration and cointegration
analysis
Borja Balparda
1
, Guglielmo Maria Caporale
2*
and Luis A. Gil-Alana
3
1
University of Navarra, Faculty of Economics, Pamplona, Spain.
2
Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University, London, UB8 3PH, UK.
3
University of Navarra, Faculty of Economics, Pamplona, Spain.
Received 28 April, 2015; Accepted 28 September, 2015
This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration techniques to analyze nominal exchange rate
dynamics in three groups of African countries aiming to form currency unions in the near future. The
proposed unions are the WAMZ (West African Monetary Zone), the EAC (East African Community), and
the SADC (South African Development Community). The univariate results indicate that in all but three
countries (Democratic Republic of Congo, Mauritius and Madagascar) the nominal exchange rate series
exhibit a unit root. Concerning the multivariate results, for the WAMZ cointegration is only found in the
case of Ghana with both Gambia and Guinea; for the EAC for Rwanda with Burundi, and Tanzania with
both Rwanda and Uganda. Finally, for the SADC, cointegration is found in only 15 out of 66 cases,
including Swaziland with South Africa, Zambia with Malawi, and Mozambique with both Lesotho and
Tanzania. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.
Key words: Monetary unions, Africa, exchange rates.
INTRODUCTION
In this paper we examine nominal exchange rate
dynamics in three groups of African countries that are
expected to form currency unions in the near future in
order to assess the viability of the latter. The proposed
unions are the following: the West African Monetary Zone
(WAMZ), formed by Gambia, Guinea, Ghana, Liberia,
Nigeria and Sierra Leone ; the East African Community
(EAC) formed by Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and
Uganda; and the South African Development Community
(SADC) formed by Angola, Botswana, Congo Democratic
Republic, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius,
Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Seychelles,
Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Each of
the these three groups of countries is at a different stage
in the process of introducing a common monetary policy
and/or a common currency. After discussing briefly the
background to the planned creation of new monetary
unions, we then investigate the statistical properties of
the nominal exchange rates of the currencies of these
sets of countries. As it is stated by the Optimal Currency
Area (OCA) a certain degree of stability and possibly
similar patterns in their behaviour are desirable with a
*Corresponding author. E-mail: Guglielmo-Maria.Caporale@brunel.ac.uk. Tel.: +44 (0)1895 266713. Fax: +44 (0)1895 269770.
JEL classification: C22, C32, E31, F15
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