CARSEY I N S T I T U T E POLICY BRIEF NO. 8 FALL 2008 Population Growth in New Hispanic Destinations KENNETH M. JOHNSON AND DANIEL T. LICHTER T he spread of America’s Hispanic population has been a major source of new population growth in the United States outside traditional immigrant gate- ways, such as New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. Much of the debate and conversation about Hispanic immigration has focused on immigration-induced population growth. Far less attention has been paid to the impact of Hispanic natural increase (more births than deaths). Natural increase is now the major engine of Hispanic population growth in both the core and suburbs of large metro areas, in many smaller metro areas, and in rural communities. Te increas- ing importance of natural increase adds a new dimension to the challenge of integrating the growing Hispanic population into rural and urban areas. Tis brief provides a new demo- graphic portrait of rural and small-town America, one now being redrawn by the infusion of Hispanic migrants and, perhaps more important, by the large number of Hispanic births in the United States. Our analysis provides a glimpse of America’s future. Current trends will remake the social and cultural fabric of communities for decades to come. 1 Tey raise new concerns about ethnic confict, fagging immigrant incorporation, and the burdens on local taxpayers (e.g., bilingual education, property taxes, health care, and social services). 2 More important, the rapid rise in the Hispanic population in America is likely to continue, with or without restrictive immigration legislation. Trough natural increase, Hispanic population growth has taken on a momentum of its own. Hispanics Now Account for Half of U.S. Population Growth Te share of overall U.S. population gain attributable to Hispanics has grown rapidly over the past two decades. During the 1990s, for example, the U.S. population grew by 32.7 million persons—the largest population increase in U.S. history. Hispanics accounted for 13.3 million, or nearly 41 percent, of this population growth. Te Hispanic population grew by 60.6 percent during the 1990s, while the overall U.S. population grew by only 13 percent. Hispanic growth since 2000 has accelerated, and by July 2007 had already grown by 10.2 million. Even more remarkable, though Hispanics represented only 12.5 percent of the U.S. population in 2000, they produced one-half of the entire U.S. population increase between 2000 and 2007. As a result, Hispanics now consti- tute 15 percent of the population. For many communities, Hispanic population growth ofen makes the diference between growth and decline. In- deed, between 2000 and 2005, an unprecedented 221 coun- ties experienced population increases only because Hispanic gains more than ofset population decline of non-Hispanics (Figure 1). Hispanic population gains also diminished the overall loss in another 1,100 counties, including large swatches of the Great Plains, where years of decline have threatened the region’s economic and demographic viability. In another 1,600 counties, Hispanic population increase combined with gains among the non-Hispanics to accelerate population growth. Figure 1: The Impact of Hispanic Population Change on Overall Population Change, 2000 to 2005 Data: Census 2000 and FSCPE 2007