Supplementing Materials for, “Estimating Under Five Mortality in Space and Time in a Developing World Context” Journal Title XX(X):1–53 c The Author(s) 2017 Reprints and permission: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/ToBeAssigned www.sagepub.com/ Jon Wakefield 1,2 , Geir-Arne Fuglstad 3 , Andrea Riebler 3 , Jessica Godwin 1 , Katie Wilson 2 and Samuel J. Clark 4 1 HIV Adjustment We are interested in modeling the probability of death within the first 5 years of life. Suppose we have 60 months with monthly hazards q 1 m , m =0,..., 59. Survival until age 5 is given by Survival = 59  m=0 (1 - q 1 m ). Taking logs: log(Survival)= 59  m=0 log(1 - q 1 m ) ≈- 59  m=0 q 1 m So Survival = exp  - 59  m=0 q 1 m  and U5MR = q 60 0 =1 - exp  - 59  m=0 q 1 m  ≈ 1 -  1 - 59  m=0 q 1 m  = 59  m=0 q 1 m . 1 Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle 2 Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle 3 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 4 Department of Sociology, The Ohio State University, Columbus Email: jonno@uw.edu Prepared using sagej.cls [Version: 2016/06/24 v1.10]