Ann Reg Sci
DOI 10.1007/s00168-017-0816-7
SPECIAL ISSUE PAPER
To be (or not to be) resilient over time: facts and causes
Paolo Di Caro
1,2,3
Received: 11 July 2016 / Accepted: 3 February 2017
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017
Abstract This study provides novel evidence on the resilience of regional labour
markets in Italy by applying the nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive mod-
elling approach to newly released data on total, female and industrial employment.
Five main conclusions derive from the empirical results. The concept of ecological
resilience describes regional evolution in Italy over the past 40years. Spatial dif-
ferences in resilience result significant across Italian regions. Female employment
registers low resilience dynamics and increasing vulnerability during shocks. Since
the first half of nineties national and international destabilizing events contributed to
amplify regional divergences. The uneven evolution and performance of the manufac-
turing sector across Italy provides some explanations on the asymmetric geographical
distribution of resilience in this country. The concluding section summarizes the main
findings of the work and proposes future avenues of research.
JEL Classification R11 · R12 · C34
1 Introduction
Gathering momentum since the start of the Great Recession in 2007–2008, both the
analysis of the spatial effects of aggregate economic shocks and the study of the impact
of recessionary events on the developmental path of particular places have attracted
B Paolo Di Caro
pdicaro@unict.it
1
Department of Economics and Business, University of Catania, Corso Italia 55, 95129 Catania,
Italy
2
Centre for Applied Macro-Finance, DERS, University of York, York, UK
3
Department of Finance, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Catania, Italy
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