8 D. Pupavac et al: Modelling Transport Demands in Maritime Passenger Trafc Modelling Transport Demands in Maritime Passenger Trafc Modeliranje potražnje prijevoza u putničkom pomorskom prometu KEY WORDS model maritime passenger transport demand gross domestic product tourists DOI 10.17818/NM.1.2.2015 UDK 656.6 : 338.48 (457.5) Review / Pregledni članak Paper accepted / Rukopis primljen: 7. 1. 2015. KLJUČNE RIJEČI model pomorski putnički promet potražnja bruto domaći proizvod turisti Drago Pupavac Polytehnic of Rijeka Rijeka e-mail: drago.pupavac@veleri.hr Veljko Plazibat University of Split Faculty of Maritime Studies, Split e-mail: veljko.plazibat@pfst.hr Summary In this paper, the research has been carried out on the impact of gross domestic product (GDP) and the number of tourist arrivals (TA) on trafc demand in maritime passenger trafc in the Republic of Croatia. The initial assumption of this study is that the number of passengers carried in Croatian maritime transport (NP) depends on the number of tourist arrivals and the gross domestic product. The results are based on statistical methods of regression and correlation analysis. Tha analysis period spans over the years 1979. – 2013. The obtained insights could help help shippers in maritime passenger transport, and managers at all levels in maritime industry. Sažetak U ovom je radu istražen utjecaj bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP) i broja dolazaka turista (DT) na prijevoznu potražnju u pomorskom putničkom prometu u Republici Hrvatskoj. Polazna pretpostavka ovoga rada je da broj prevezenih putnika u pomorskom putničkom prometu (BP) u Republici Hrvatskoj ovisi o broju dolazaka turista i bruto domaćem proizvodu. Rezultati istraživanja temelje se na statističkim metodama regresijske i korelacijske analize. Statističkom analizom obuhvaćeno je razdoblje od 1979. do 2013. godine. Dobivene spoznaje mogu pomoći brodarima u pomorskom putničkom prometu, odnosno menadžerima na svim razinama u pomorskom gospodarstvu. 1. INTRODUCTION / Uvod With more than 27 million of passengers carried in maritime transport, the Republic of Croatia is in the top class of 28 EU countries. Regarding the number of passengers carried in relation to the number of inhabitants, with 6.4 passengers per capita, Croatia also belongs to the top class EU-28. Countries with higher ratio in 2013. are Malta, with 20.8 passengers per capita, Estonia with 9.8, Denmark with 7.3 and Greece with 6.6. Italian and Greek ports each handled roughly twice as many maritime passengers in 2012. as in any other EU Member State, there 76.7 million and 72.8 million passengers accounting for 19.3 % and 18.3 % of the EU-28 total respectively. Denmark (41 million passengers) had the next highest number of maritime passengers, followed by Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Croatia, France (data are for 2012.) and Spain, which each handled between 30 million and 23 million passengers in 2013. 1 Data refer to the number of passengers „handled in 1 Cf. more: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/ Passenger_transport_statistics ports“ (the sum of passengers embarked and then disembarked in ports). The number of maritime passengers carried in the EU- 28 fell for four consecutive years, with passenger numbers down overall by 9.4 % between 2008. and 2012. The main objective of Croatian maritime policy perhaps should be an increase of this ratio to 7, that is an increase of passengers in maritime transport above the limit of 30 millions passengers. Accordingly, the main objective of this study is to develop an appropriate econometric model to estimate the maritime and coastal transport of passengers in order to fnd out whether Croatia can achieve this increase, and if so, to determine the period in which it can be done. The correlation analysis was used to determine crucial factors in passenger transport demand 2 and in maritime transport demand, while the regression model was used to analytically express the relation between the number of tourist arrivals and the number of passengers carried from 1979. 2 Cf. more: Pupavac, D. (2009): Načela ekonomike prometa, [Principles of Transport Economics], Rijeka, Veleučilište u Rijeci, [Polytechnics of Rijeka]. Maja Krčum University of Split Faculty of Maritime Studies, Split e-mail: maja.krcum@pfst.hr