INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESEARCH Int. J. Energy Res. 2005; 29:829–840 Published online 24 February 2005 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/er.1092 Forecasting total and industrial sector electricity demand based on genetic algorithm approach: Turkey case study Harun Kemal Ozturk n,y and Halim Ceylan Engineering Faculty, Pamukkale University, 20017, Denizli, Turkey SUMMARY This study deals with estimation of the total and industrial sector electricity consumption based on genetic algorithm (GA) approach, and then proposes two scenarios to project future consumptions. Total electricity consumption is estimated based on gross national product (GNP), population, import and export figures of Turkey. Industrial sector electricity is calculated based on the GNP, import and export figures. Three forms of the genetic algorithm electricity demand (GAED) models for the total and two forms for the industrial electricity consumption are developed. The best-fit GAED model in terms of total minimum relative average errors between observed and estimated values is selected for future demand estimation. ‘High- and low-growth scenarios’ are proposed for predicting the future electricity consumption. Results showed that the GAED estimates the electricity demand in comparison with the other electricity demand projections. The GAED model plans electricity demand of Turkey until 2020. Copyright # 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS: electricity consumption; electricity projection; genetic algorithm; Turkey’s electricity 1. INTRODUCTION Turkey is located between Europe and Asia as a natural energy bridge with a population of about 65 million in 2001. It has the highest population growth rate among International Energy Agency (IEA) countries with around 1.8% according to the National Statistics (NS, 2003). The estimation of electricity consumption is of great importance for the future electricity policies, such as conservation programmes, the planning of capacity expansion and the construction of nationwide interconnection of power network. Therefore, it is important to understand the relationship between electricity and income, in order to avoid the electricity shortages that hampered Turkey’s economic growth in the past. The effect of short supply of electric power on the development of industry and national economy has been mitigated. Turkey’s energy consumption has been experiencing rapid growth since the 1980s. Energy imports have increased steadily and are expected to increase further in the years to come due to the small increase in energy production. Net energy imports increased from 27.5 mtoe in 1990 to Received 22 March 2004 Accepted 25 November 2004 Copyright # 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. y E-mail: hkozturk@pamukkale.edu.tr n Correspondence to: H. K. Ozturk, Engineering Faculty, Pamukkale University, 20017, Denizli, Turkey.