Assessment of seismic risk in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic M. Erdik a, * , T. Rashidov b , E. Safak c , A. Turdukulov d a Department of Earthquake Engineering, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University, Cengelkoy, 81220 Istanbul, Turkey b IMSS, Academy of Sciences, Tashkent, Uzbekistan c USGS, Pasadena, CA, USA d IOS, Academy of Sciences, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan Received 15 April 2004; revised 1 October 2004; accepted 1 November 2004 Abstract The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of ‘Earthquake damage and Loss Scenarios’. The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of earthquake risk scenario in Tashkent–Uzbekistan and Bishkek–Kyrgyzstan an approach based on spectral displacements is utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to the future developments. q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Tashkent; Bishkek; Earthquake; Hazard; Urban risk 1. Background and methodology In recent decades earthquake disaster risks in urban centers have increased mainly due to very high rate of urbanization, faulty land-use planning and construction, inadequate infrastructure and services, and environmental degradation. It becomes imperative that certain prepared- ness and emergency procedures are contrived in the event of and prior to an earthquake disaster, which in turn requires the quantification of effects of the earthquake on physical and social environment. A NATO Science for Peace project concerned with the assessment and mitigation of the seismic risk in two capital cities of Central Asia, Tashkent in Uzbekistan and Bishkek in Kyrgyz Republic has been conducted (Fig. 1). Both of the cities have experienced large damaging earthquakes in the past, and will again in the future. Therefore, these cities need broad policies, based on and underpinned by science and technology, to be enacted and implemented before the earthquake strikes in order to facilitate realization of the city’s mandate to protect people, infrastructure and physical development. The ultimate aim of the NATO project is the assessment of seismic risk from future earthquakes in Tashkent and Bishkek and the reduction of future losses. The three main tasks of the project are (1) assessment of seismic hazard in the two cities, (2) assessment of expected losses, and (3) development of loss reduction strategies. Five institutions participate in the project: the Institute of Mechanics and Seismic Stability of Structures, Tashkent, Uzbekistan; the Institute of Seismology and the Institute of Design and Construction, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; the Bogazici University—Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Istanbul, Turkey; and the US Geological Survey (USGS), Golden, Colorado, USA. The 1988 Armenian and the 1995 Sakhalin earthquakes in the former Soviet Union killed tens of thousands of people and destroyed more than 90% of the residential buildings. Because of the centralized design and construc- tion practices in the former Soviet Union, the buildings in Tashkent and Bishkek are not much different and similar losses are likely to be experienced. The 1996 NATO Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 25 (2005) 473–486 www.elsevier.com/locate/soildyn 0267-7261/$ - see front matter q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2004.11.002 * Corresponding author. Tel.: C90 216 332 6560; fax: C90 216 308 0163. E-mail address: erdik@boun.edu.tr (M. Erdik).